Winter temperatures that don't dip below freezing in the Greater Toronto Area. Sound good?
Hang on. Along with that, Ontario's new climate-change projections include hotter summers leading to more smog days and the spread of Lyme disease-carrying ticks, currently kept at bay by cold winters. And far greater temperature shifts in the north could spell the end for Ontario's polar bears.
"These pictures of what Ontario's climate might look like in the future will encourage us to change our behaviour, we hope, and help us prepare for a warmer climate and its effect on our communities, our people and our ecosystems," Natural Resources Minister David Ramsay said yesterday at Queen's Park.
The peek into the future comes from a website, gogreenontario.ca, launched yesterday. A climate projection model lets users pick a level of greenhouse gases (either they continue to increase or we reduce them), a time period (from a few years to nearly a century) and a region of Ontario. Some results:
As early as 2071, average winter temperatures in the Greater Toronto Area could be 2C to 3C, compared to the current average of -1C to -2C, if greenhouse gases continue to increase. Summer temperatures could rise to 25C or 26C from the current average of 21C. Even if greenhouse gases are reduced, temperatures in the Greater Toronto Area could still rise because of damage already done.
In northeastern Ontario, where most of the province's polar bears live, winter temperatures could skyrocket 10 to 11 degrees, beginning in 2071. Many Ontarians think of climate change as a global problem. The website is designed to make them understand the severity of possible effects here, Ramsay said. "This brings it home," he said.
"Demonstrations like this show people that this is real and we really need to get working on it."
NDP environment critic Peter Tabuns (Toronto-Danforth) agreed educating Ontarians about climate change is important, but the province needs to do more.
Ontario needs a climate-change plan that meets Kyoto targets and it must invest more in transit and energy efficiency for homes, he said.
"Investments along those lines, rather than simple platitudes and websites, are what's needed."
One of the most effective actions Ontario could take would be to close coal-fired power plants, a step the Liberals have delayed.
Closing coal-fired plants "is our commitment, we are going to do it and in a perfect world we'd love to do it sooner but we're not able to," said Ramsay of the plan to close them by the end of 2014.
Ramsay also announced increased funding for polar bear research and a new expert panel on climate-change adaptation.
